Quantum computing - when should companies start paying attention
The answer is - companies should start to take action for long term strategy and investments now. There are parallels with AI - companies that “front-ran” AI are big winners now. These include NVIDIA, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Tesla.
Timing
Our estimate of widespread quantum computing use is around 2035. There will be some use before then.
Given how big the impact of quantum computing will be - large companies should start acting now to protect their long-term assets, and to build assets that will become valuable when quantum computing is applied. It’s a case of “skate to where the puck is going”.
Quantum computers are like planes. Classical computers are like cars.
Quantum computers are a new type of computers. An analogy is that classical computers are like cars, and quantum computers are like planes.
Planes allow you to get from place to place much faster than a car. But there are still many things for which a car is still the much better choice than a plane.
You do not need to understand how quantum computing works
Business people don’t need to understand exactly how quantum computers work - in the same way that very few business leaders understand all the processes in a classical computer. It is the same as you not needing to know exactly how a car or television works to use it.
What will quantum computing change?
The key strength of quantum computers is that they can model very large numbers of scenarios at the same time. A classical computer, on the other hand, has to go through them one-by-one.
This is a good rule-of-thumb for working out what quantum computers will change.
A few examples of important things that quantum computers will dramatically change that follow from this:
- Pharmaceuticals - finding new drugs. Molecule-level modelling (of the drug and the body) that is too complex for current computers will mean a step-change in medicine. This will have major implications - including on longevity, on the value of drug patents, and on global demographics/geopolitics.
- Materials - finding new materials. Quantum computing will allow us to create a large range of materials that unlock things that we can’t currently do. This will include materials that make better large-capacity batteries, and better fertilizers that reduce food costs.
- Financial Markets - modelling complex systems. These will create opportunities for firms that are ahead of the curve in quantum computing - potentially creating the Renaissance Technologies of the 21st century. At a broader level, this should mean more efficient capital markets - unlocking global growth.
- Manufacturing and logistics at scale - modelling complex systems. This allows companies to operate efficiently at a larger scale (where currently things get too complex and start to suffer from inefficiencies). This could lead to ultra-large companies in sectors like manufacturing, shipping, airlines, retail.
- Artificial intelligence and robotics - quantum computing could make training AI models far more efficient. This could lead to much more intelligent AI, and AI for much more specific use cases trained on proprietary data sets. An important use of this more intelligent AI is likely to be in robotics.
- Pure science - quantum computing will allow us to make new and in many cases unexpected discoveries in basic science. This will result in big but difficult to imagine changes. Thinking about the changes in the 20th century that came about because of breakthroughs in basic science - from satellites to antibiotics to nuclear power.
What companies should do now
Large companies should start to develop a quantum computing strategy. This should look at what will happen to the company’s existing long-term assets once quantum computing is adopted, and what new assets the company can build/acquire that will become valuable in a world with quantum computing.