Understanding what China's new Five-Year Plan will mean for the world

China is finalizing its next Five-Year Plan - for 2026 to 2030. This decides what China will do and become in the medium term. As the world's second largest economy, and one of the world's most important technological and military actors, this is important for governments and companies around the world.

Putting Five Year Plans in context - At the top level, China has broadly-defined long term goals. These include: i) Vision 2035 - which covers things like becoming an innovation-driven economy and national defense goals, and ii) the 2049 Centenary Goal - which marks the People's Republic of China's 100th anniversary and is to "build a modern socialist country" that is "prosperous, strong, democratic (China's format for democracy), culturally advanced, and harmonious". The Five-Year Plans help achieve the country's long-term goals.

Timing of the upcoming Five-Year Plan - studies and discussions began in 2024, the Government's Central Committee is currently preparing the plans, the plan is expected to be formally published in March 2026.

What we expect the upcoming Five-Year Plan to contain (largely based on what has been spoken about by officials and state press recently):

1. Leadership in pure science and in technology - to become a leader in scientific research, breakthroughs in fundamental science, and the application of science in society and business by being a leader in technology development and adoption. Focus areas are likely to include advanced computing chips, AI, robotics, advanced manufacturing, aerospace, space, quantum computing, biotechnology, new energy, energy storage, neuroscience, 6G telecommunications, carbon capture, and advanced materials.
2. Moving up the value curve - to shift manufacturing to increasingly higher-value advanced manufacturing, to continue the rapid growth of the services sector as a proportion of total GDP.
3. Domestic demand - increasing domestic consumption to increase economic activity that is not reliant on exports and property.
4. International influence - increasing international foreign investment and diplomacy.
5. Green transition - continue the move to renewable energy production and electrification (e.g. EVs).
6. Demographics public policy - more investment in health and eldercare. Policies designed to increase birth rates and the working age population.

From a geopolitical perspective, this is likely to mean changes in global influence, alignment, and trade policies – which will all affect companies’ trade and operations – not just within China but elsewhere in the world. Demand for international goods and services from China might increase as the country increases consumer consumption. Some goods and services will face more competition as Chinese companies start to compete in those markets. There could be more supply of high-value goods and services from China to the rest of the world – which could increase standards of living. Competition for some of some goods and services is likely to increase. These types of new supply will unlock new market opportunities. We should see China become a bigger contributor of pure science and new technology to the world.

Companies should position themselves to benefit from new opportunities that the implementation of the next Five-Year Plan creates, and should act to change their holdings and strategies that will be disrupted.